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Regarding „The FT has recently rep...Three comments:<br />Regarding „The FT has recently reported Government claims that the average pension is EUR750 per month - which are true enough of the primary pension, but overlook the fact that one in two Greek pensioners receives more than one pension (p 6 here).“ <br /><br />Does this mean the average pensioneer receives about 1,7 pensions of EUR750?<br /><br /><br />Regarding „In fact, the latest available data (2008 and 2012) suggest that social security contributions were not a low share of the total payroll cost of Greek employers by EU standards (higher than in Germany, for one) and their share of labour costs grew during the crisis.“<br /> <br />More realistic are comparisons to competitors like Ireland, Bulgary, the Baltics or Turkey. Labour costs have to be reduced in order to regain competitiveness. Therefore employers should pay LESS or NOTHING during the crisis. Most urgent is to use more of the existing resources, to modernize them including better collaberation and many fusions, stimulating transparency, competition, flexibility and technology in order to gain new employment. <br />New employment in large companies (less in the public administration) helps the social systems finally.<br /><br />Regarding „employment is probably near all-time lows“<br /><br />Why that? The assumption is dangerous and too popular that things could no longer get much worse. Employment might go down as long as parts of the greek administration do not focus on the real problems that caused the economic weakness but fight scapegoats<br />.olfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04796029792999490745noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4777210255040195387.post-651756513837926482015-06-26T20:03:19.393+01:002015-06-26T20:03:19.393+01:00ops..."My 'dogma' .....is that anythi...ops..."My 'dogma' .....is that anything that is called a pension should be self-financing and reflect savings and returns on them. Anything else should be called 'welfare' and be means-tested." wow!!<br />I fear you have to re-start from the very basics..may I suggest you to read Esping-Andersen's 1990 volume ? ayway, the world does not need dogma in 2015... you know ....Galileo spent his life and Giordano Bruno actually gave his to go beyond dogmas... Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4777210255040195387.post-32895015291300408082015-06-26T19:55:11.598+01:002015-06-26T19:55:11.598+01:00so what? ....why should pensions be financed throu...so what? ....why should pensions be financed through social contributions only ? .... open your mind, my friend, you might see beyond... <br />cf. WB 2014 Report THE INVERTING PYRAMID. Pension Systems Facing Demographic Challenges in Europe and Central AsiaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4777210255040195387.post-2490880134013266832015-06-26T19:48:42.171+01:002015-06-26T19:48:42.171+01:00really excellent....just some omissions..
http://e...really excellent....just some omissions..<br />http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/structural_reforms/ageing/pensions/index_en.htm<br />.who cares...?...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4777210255040195387.post-39197204592270532672015-06-25T13:37:33.255+01:002015-06-25T13:37:33.255+01:00So we could assume that military spending is part ...So we could assume that military spending is part of "welfare"? :D :DPierluigi Di Pietrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356682033723369477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4777210255040195387.post-65975897747721109712015-06-23T18:50:54.237+01:002015-06-23T18:50:54.237+01:00Actually, I beg to differ My 'dogma' is th...Actually, I beg to differ My 'dogma' is that anything that is called a pension should be self-financing and reflect savings and returns on them. Anything else should be called 'welfare' and be means-tested. That's all I'm saying. Nothing wrong with welfare, as long as you do it right and don't pretend it's something it is not.Manoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01568922717477813566noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4777210255040195387.post-29372572923447618902015-06-21T15:52:36.182+01:002015-06-21T15:52:36.182+01:00excellent analysis!!excellent analysis!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4777210255040195387.post-64398479134576695742015-06-19T17:30:43.122+01:002015-06-19T17:30:43.122+01:00Thanks for the reply (and the update), Manos. I do...Thanks for the reply (and the update), Manos. I do agree with your “self-employed” claim, although I’m not sure this is a unique Greek characteristic. However, I partly laid the argument to explain how the system ended up being insolvent, not as a way forward. Obviously, no increases in employer contributions would make much difference today. Also, it would be too risky in the current state of massive unemployment to demand employers to pay more for new hires and old employees. Yet historically there is no question, even with the data you provided (btw so frustrating Eurostat’s data are so poor), that Greek employers underfunded the system. See the percentage within the Eurozone. If you take the EU as a whole, former soviet countries distort the average, plus most of them are outside the “straitjacket” of the Euro, so it’s not fair—in my opinion--to compare labor costs and their ensuing productivity with Greece’s. The German comparison is also a distortion, again for historical reasons post-unification etc. <br /><br />With regards to the investment outlook, though, of course a single allocation is a remnant of some older era and that should definitely change. But that wasn’t my point. My point is that this is secondary. My professional area of focus is the American retirement system, or better say, its many fragments (thanks to ERISA, which ironically enough was voted to protect private pensions). I’ve seen that happening so many times; first an employer starving their defined benefit plan. Then promises of super investments that will save it. Failure. Then “concessions” are being requested from the employees, e.g. the plan is “frozen,” then the supplementary defined contribution plan becomes the primary and practically people are left with no retirement savings (almost 50% of the American middle class, easily find multiple sources confirming that).So, I have no qualms to call the bs behind the invest-your-way-out idea. Make sure I’m well aware you never said that investments the Greek pension system. But I personally feel it’s important not to miss the forest for the trees that is the state of permanent (and intentional) “underfundedness” of the system. Btw, the anonymous from June 17 is having a very good point: Why not fund pensions through a general tax revenue? That’s the case with Social Security in the US, legacy of the great FDR.<br /><br />P.S For me there is no question between pensions and welfare. I progressive, modern state should have both. I’m worried abt the incentives you give out in case you acknowledge that family should be at the receiving end instead of the individual. See pension benefits for daughters of deceased.<br /><br />P.S.1. I might be a bit passionate about the whole issue, but it’s something I’m dealing with on a daily basis michaelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4777210255040195387.post-12856115750815264312015-06-19T09:10:00.765+01:002015-06-19T09:10:00.765+01:00Excellent work, well researched, sources opened. I...Excellent work, well researched, sources opened. I learned a lot.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4777210255040195387.post-89537544125388025702015-06-17T10:07:13.886+01:002015-06-17T10:07:13.886+01:00This is a very good description of the situation, ...This is a very good description of the situation, but the author makes the same fundamental mistake as so many others, to assume that a pension system should be self-financing. That is the basis for his entire argument: a way must be found to make the pension funds sustainable without injections from the state and, as long as that has not happened, the pension funds are a big problem.<br /><br />Why is that? Why should pensions not be funded by the state, out of general tax revenue? I have never seen any sensible argument to that effect. Only dogma.<br /><br />At the bottom of this is the question of what is a state and what is within a state's responsibilities or not. Play with the thought of transposing the article's arguments regarding pensions to the military. As things stand, almost 100% of military spending is funded by general tax revenue. Should the military be self-financing? Should it rely on income from mercenary wars and looting for its expenses? Is the military an enterprise that should be self-sustainable without state subsidies? If not, then why pensions?<br /><br />Someone please answer that. Until then, the entire argument about the need for the pension system to be self-financing is based on nothing but dogma. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4777210255040195387.post-71006643430310214322015-06-15T20:40:59.563+01:002015-06-15T20:40:59.563+01:00Many thanks!!! Amazing nobody told him otherwise, ...Many thanks!!! Amazing nobody told him otherwise, does not bode well for endgame.Gaspardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4777210255040195387.post-30077584079127486092015-06-15T15:01:22.862+01:002015-06-15T15:01:22.862+01:00Regarding the early pensioners' counter-incent...Regarding the early pensioners' counter-incentives to work again, please take into account that, if they do, their pension is very likely to suffer severe cuts!<br /><br />http://www.inegsee.gr/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/apasxolhsh-suntaksiouxwn.pdfAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10927941769525950662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4777210255040195387.post-19132851212398245072015-06-14T21:49:32.378+01:002015-06-14T21:49:32.378+01:00Hi Gaspard. YV is wrong. Even if you consider all ...Hi Gaspard. YV is wrong. Even if you consider all social benefits in kind (e.g. medical services to the insured) to be 'non-pension' and work all non-payroll, non-pension spending as a share of primary expenditure, it comes up to btw. 32% and 40% for most recent years; 32% in 2014. YV was talking out of his arse, or possibly mixing up State Budget figures with General Government Budget figures.<br /><br /><br />The figures you need are here: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-416345_QID_1B51359A_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;NA_ITEM,L,Y,0;UNIT,L,Z,0;SECTOR,L,Z,1;GEO,L,Z,2;INDICATORS,C,Z,3;&zSelection=DS-416345GEO,EL;DS-416345UNIT,MIO_EUR;DS-416345SECTOR,S13;DS-416345INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;&rankName1=UNIT_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=GEO_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=SECTOR_1_2_-1_2&rankName4=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName5=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName6=NA-ITEM_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23Manoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01568922717477813566noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4777210255040195387.post-51742116297808240972015-06-14T11:03:38.178+01:002015-06-14T11:03:38.178+01:00Fantastic blog
I've been wondering about this...Fantastic blog<br /><br />I've been wondering about this sentence in YV's letter to Eurogroup which seems to have dropped down the memory hole. Was he simply mistaken in his numbers, and if so, did he get an unpleasant suprprise on assuming office that his reform for cash ideas were more unattanable than he thought:<br /><br />"Identify cost saving measures through a thorough spending review of every Ministry and rationalization of non-salary and non-pension expenditures which, at present, account for an astounding 56% of total public expenditure. "<br /><br />http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/24/us-eurozone-greece-text-idUSKBN0LS0V520150224Gaspardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4777210255040195387.post-34567754666654201742015-06-13T19:53:00.060+01:002015-06-13T19:53:00.060+01:00Hi Michael,
I've tried to respond to your co...Hi Michael, <br /><br />I've tried to respond to your comment on employers' contributions above. Regarding returns on pension fund assets I agree it would not be possible to earn huge returns on financial assets. But even simple diversified portfolios would have outperformed Greek pension funds allocations enormously in the pre and post crisis years. I've linked to one study above which illustrates this. There's no need to go from 75pc bonds and deposits to 100pc hedge funds and no one had ever advocated this. <br /><br />As for your view on family benefits I'm sure there are problems with my proposal. Happy to discuss further. The key question to me is how we move resources out of pensions and into means-tested welfare in a way that reflects people's means and needs. If you disagree, we have a more fundamental disagreement. If you agree then happy to hear alternatives. Manoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01568922717477813566noreply@blogger.com