The Right Hon. David Cameron PC MP, Prime
Minister of the United Kingdom
Dear Prime Minister
My name is Emmanuel Schizas. I was born and
grew up in Athens, Greece, and moved to London in 2005, at a time when my homeland
was growing and gaining in influence regionally. Like many of my compatriots I
came here to further my education, at tremendous unsubsidised cost as an MSc student;
I have lived in London since and in April this year I was honoured to become a
full British citizen.
People do not rise to positions of power
without some measure of intelligence. No doubt you realise I am writing in
response your recent comments,
interpreted as offering conditional support for restrictions to the flow of immigrants
or even visitors from Greece in the event of a full-scale economic meltdown.
I urge you to read on. This is no rant
about neoliberal bogeymen and how you are in fact a giant man eating lizard, no
diatribe concerning the Parthenon Marbles, no yo-mama-nomic riposte complete with
disingenuous hints at LIBOR fixing or the size of the UK structural deficit. I
am a man of facts, used to receiving and delivering criticism of my homeland;
however as Britain is now also my home I am bound to treat it, and its
Governments, no differently.
I have spent my entire career, brief as it
has been, in Britain’s policy industry. As such I believe I can guess what pressures
you are under and can appreciate your need to appease your many diverse
constituencies.
At a time when Labour’s poll lead is becoming
dangerously
wide you no doubt feel the need to plug your party’s leaks
to UKIP (ca. 11% of your 2010 vote) by appearing to be robustly Eurosceptic,
and to be sure there is nothing wrong with being sceptical of the EU institutions
or of EU federalism.
Perhaps you also wish to avoid dealing a
finishing blow to the originator
of the Government’s ‘Greek influx’ talk, your faltering Home Secretary, Theresa
May, already reeling from the botched
deportation of Abu Qatada and notoriously the second
ever Home Secretary to be held in contempt of court. It is also likely that
you need to toss the Daily Mails of
this world and their readers a bone after dismissing out of hand their protests,
for once actually justified, over the same Home Secretary’s proposals to drastically
increase the Government’s powers of surveillance over its own citizens.
You have, however, picked the wrong issue
to milk. I have read and re-read your statements and I know that they are far
less aggressive than your detractors claim; I know you have only said that you
reserve the option, provided as you believe by law, to impose restrictions if ‘stresses
and strains’ should arise. But you cannot look anyone in the eye and claim that
these statements are not left purposefully vague in order to allow Eurosceptics
to claim a victory of sorts, to allow your coalition partners to save face, and
to allow you to change course without being accused of another U-turn.
Your argument for restrictions, it seems to
me, rests on three premises:
1.
There is a small but
significant probability of a Greek Eurozone exit and default leading to full
scale economic collapse.
2.
A large number of Greeks would
leave for the UK if the Greek economy were to collapse.
3.
The number of prospective Greek
immigrants would overstretch public services in Britain.
In
fact, all three premises are severely flawed.
1. There simply are not enough would-be
migrants from Greece to pose a serious problem to Britain. As reviews
of post-enlargement immigrant flows have suggested, migrants in mass
migration waves tend to be young, male and medium- to highly- skilled. There
are about
3.7 million Greeks of either gender between 20 and 45 years of age, of whom only
3m are economically active (including the unemployed), and of whom only
2m have mid- to high- level qualifications. A third of those would have
jobs even in a collapse scenario, leaving us with about 1.3m eligible migrants.
If these were to be distributed not according to the economic prospects of host
nations (see below) but according to the Greek people’s stated preferences for places
to work, Britain should receive some 31% of
this total, i.e. 300,000 people. Britain currently hosts just under 6.5m migrants, who
on average fare better
in the labour market than UK-born individuals. Even if somehow Greece collapses,
you need not fear that a horde of hairy garlic eaters will descend upon your
shores.
2. Immigrants fleeing an underperforming economy
do not flock into a faraway one experiencing a mild recession when other
economies closer to home are growing. There is no reason to believe Britain
would be overwhelmingly preferred on any basis. To give you an example, during
the last UK recession (2007-09), immigration to the UK from the hard-hit
countries of Eastern Europe fell
by 33%, against only 9% for immigration from other countries. Ireland saw a
similar but much steeper trend. Successive UK governments have cited falling
inward migration as evidence that their policies are working; in fact this is
simply evidence that the UK is becoming a less attractive place to live. Yes,
language is a barrier and most Greeks speak English – but French and German are
also common.
3. While Greece may be headed for some
apocalyptic endgame, the amount of political will invested in keeping us in the
Eurozone is enormous. The probability of a voluntary exit is, until the next
elections at least, very low as both the majority
of Greeks and the new Government want us to stay in the Eurozone. In fact,
given the European tendency to conveniently ignore the EU treaties when
necessity calls (remember the no-bailout
clause 125 anyone?), I wouldn’t be surprised if a formula is found to allow
Greece to impose capital controls while remaining a Eurozone country.
Similarly, with most of our debt now in the official sector’s hands, i.e.
burdening the EU taxpayer, Greece cannot be allowed to default – there will be
renegotiations upon renegotiations.
Finally I do not believe that your own
citizens, even those with no ties to Greece, will look kindly on balance on a
move to restrict the movement of people from Greece to the UK. Your
Universities will suffer, as will employers and landlords in every major UK
city – but none more so than those dealing in London’s prime
real estate, in say Kensington or Marylebone, which have witnessed a true
Greek invasion – an influx of money in search of a safe haven.
I believe that even now you have a chance
to set the record straight and repair some of the damage you have done to
Britain’s reputation.
I therefore urge you to go on the record,
within the coming week, as saying three things that I know you believe:
·
Greeks are as welcome to visit,
settle and work in Britain as any other EU citizens
·
Britain sees the free movement
of people, goods, services and capital as the biggest benefit from EU
membership and will not jeopardise it.
·
Britain can deal with the
levels of migration resulting from a Greek collapse under most reasonable
scenarios
Do the right thing, Prime Minister. Make me
proud of my adopted country.
PS. David Cameron's office invited me to connect on LinkedIn a couple of months ago. This is now coming in handy as I can deliver this letter in person.
Emmanuel, good article. Though there has been, as you say, some evidence of Greeks starting to buy high end property, living in London I haven't seen much evidence of lower income Greeks/unemployed students making the trip over here in search of work. I own a couple of restaurants here and as such am the 'front-line' and usually see shifts in immigration patterns firsthand. I have started to see plenty of Spaniards come over, some Portuguese, a few Italians, alongside the ongoing influx from Central Europe (still net incomers albeit not at previous pace)...but no Greeks. The UK is struggling and has its faults but there is still work here, in London at any rate. I would be interested to know if there are any cultural impediments in the way of more aggressive Greek migration (I would think not given the history of large Greek diaspora) and understand why young Greeks aren't making MORE of the freedom they CURRENTLY have within the EU to make themselves mobile in search of employment. There is not much available evidence either that Greeks are migrating to stronger economies (eg Germany) either. thanks
ReplyDeleteA very interesting question Anonymous! I really think the troubles of the Greek education system are now taking their toll on the young. Lack of confidence in one's own abiliity; seeking 'easy' career paths are indicators of this generalised malaise. Within a couple of decades the system has geared itself exclusively to the production of "civil servants" in the Greek sense of the phenomenon. The lack of empoyment opportunities has acted as a kind of brake in the process of self-awareness and risk- taking. Creating one's own job has been ruled off limits too, the associated bureaucracy and punitive taxation have seen to this. The young are thus hostage to the consequences of the ineptitude of the Greek politicians and the LONG loving protection of family. Few can escape.
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