• REMEMBER THAT NUMBERS ARE PEOPLE LOOK FOR COCK-UP BEFORE CONSPIRACY • ALWAYS CITE PRIMARY SOURCES


Thursday, 26 August 2010

WE ARE NOT [NAME OF DISTRESSED COUNTRY] FAIL PART 2

Apologies for the long interval, dear readers. Even LOLGreeks must work for a living.

However, I have come across a real gem on Alphaville today which I thought I must share with you. A report by Morgan Stanley entitled "Ask not whether sovereigns will default but how".

Remember how the IMF proved to us the other day that we are not Hungary (but would really, really like to be)? I'm sure I got some cheers from the Troktiko-readers back home by pointing out that Ireland and the UK and in worse shape, from an intertemporal budgets perspective, than we are.

Oh, dear. Well it turns out they are not.

You see, unlike the UK and Ireland, Greece is an old, old country. By 2050 over one third of our population will be over 65.



And we're very bad at being old because we believe people over 55 shouldn't work. The British and the Irish may be insolvent but they just might be able to dig themselves out through changes in policy if they can just buy some time. We on the other hand, cannot because we have very little discretion.Our population is ageing and they will need their hospitals, their pensions, their bus concessions and whatever have you.


Unsurprisingly, the Morgan Stanley report finds that we carry a bigger demographic burden than almost any Western country. The IMF can't fix this. The Government can't fix this. They can only work on the two first bands of the graph above, which incidentally only represent about a quarter of our problems.

Good luck Yorgo.

Readers can browse the full MS report below:

MS Default

No comments:

Post a Comment

Please remember that I am not notified of any comments and will not respond via comments.

Try to keep your criticism constructive and if you don't like something, do tell me how to fix it. If I use any of your suggestions, you will be duly credited.

Although I'm happy to entertain criticism of myself in the comments section, I will not tolerate hate speech. You will be given a written warning and after that I will delete further offending comments.

I will also delete any comments that are clearly randomly generated by third parties for their own promotion.

Occasionally, your comments may land in the spam box, which may cause them to appear with a slight delay as I have to approve them myself.

Thanks in advance for your kind words... and your trolling, if you are so inclined.