Readers will by now be tiring of my prophesies of a managed Greek default, with the IMF as administrator. If you're new or have missed a few posts, just try the Nightmare Scenaria tag and you're A-OK.
Public opinion will, I believe, slowly converge on the inevitability of default, through many different paths. It is already doing so. I don't think there's any point writing about this. Sure, a lot of my regular analysis will go on but what I would really like to write about from now on is TEH DAY AFTER TOMORROWZ: it seems to me that neither the Greek people nor the Greek political system are ready for the actual implications of default, which, lest we forget, is almost outside living memory even in a population as aged as that of Greece (last proper default was in 1932, so anyone who had just barely started to manage their own money by then was born at the latest in 1916, and will now be 95 years old).
Although I will continue to mine the news flow for cues, the questions I feel particularly drawn to are as follows:
If you'd like to see any other particular 'DAY AFTER 2MORROWZ' topics discussed here, please leave a comment below.
Otherwise, stay tuned.
Public opinion will, I believe, slowly converge on the inevitability of default, through many different paths. It is already doing so. I don't think there's any point writing about this. Sure, a lot of my regular analysis will go on but what I would really like to write about from now on is TEH DAY AFTER TOMORROWZ: it seems to me that neither the Greek people nor the Greek political system are ready for the actual implications of default, which, lest we forget, is almost outside living memory even in a population as aged as that of Greece (last proper default was in 1932, so anyone who had just barely started to manage their own money by then was born at the latest in 1916, and will now be 95 years old).
Although I will continue to mine the news flow for cues, the questions I feel particularly drawn to are as follows:
- What are the prospects for civil unrest in Greece post-default?
- What, if anything, will be the source of Greece's competitive advantage post-default?
- How can Greece keep the default from resulting in a catastrophic rise in poverty levels?
- What will default mean for the balance of political powers in Greece?
- What will happen to the Greek banking sector post-default?
- How are Greece's economic policies likely to change within a near-federal Europe?
- How will migration flows be affected by a Greek default?
- What entrepreneurial and rent-seeking activities will benefit from a Greek default?
If you'd like to see any other particular 'DAY AFTER 2MORROWZ' topics discussed here, please leave a comment below.
Otherwise, stay tuned.
