• REMEMBER THAT NUMBERS ARE PEOPLE LOOK FOR COCK-UP BEFORE CONSPIRACY • ALWAYS CITE PRIMARY SOURCES


Sunday, 25 March 2012

PRIMARY DEFICIT OFF TO A GOOD START

Good news so far although there are no guarantees. 
Remember, a primary surplus equals sovereignty. We should we whipping this government on to deliver this. 

Once again, I suspect a lot of expenses and revenues have been re-classified to make the end-of-year results look better and maintain the appearance of a primary surplus, hence I've included the year-on-year primary deficit figures for context. It may look like a nicely downward sloping line but all of the decent fits to it are asymptotic, so the primary surplus is still not in sight.

Importantly, we will go to the ballot boxes with a substantial primary deficit. This, coupled with the increasingly fragmented vote, will prompt the two major parties to consider coalition scenaria which will deepen the already untenable legitimacy crisis in Greek politics. For now, resolving this issue is even more important than dealing with the primary deficit and, although many people in Greek politics hope the elections will provide an outlet, in reality if things turn out as I predict they will only make matters worse than they currently are; though not by any means worse than they would have been had the elections been postponed. 

Anyway, enjoy the pretty data while we all can. 









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