• REMEMBER THAT NUMBERS ARE PEOPLE LOOK FOR COCK-UP BEFORE CONSPIRACY • ALWAYS CITE PRIMARY SOURCES


Thursday, 21 July 2011

PRIMARY SURPLUS #FAIL WHILE-U-WAIT

As the details of the latest bailout slowly trickle out, and in case you're wondering why we need another one, ponder this update on the execution of the Greek Budget.

It's shit. You know it's shit because the Ministry of Finance homepage is stuck at the previous announcement. It's also remarkably close to the preliminary estimates, so at least we're getting better at knowing in advance how fhxed we are.

My naive model tells me we're on track for a primary state deficit of EUR8.7bn, which lest we forget is 40% higher than last year's. This is what the forecast looks like:





And the monthly play-by play below. Hollow datapoints are my naive forecasts.




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